I write about AI and Geopolitics
Bill Friend The AGI Poll Conjunction In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier models two blunt questions about AGI. On July 6, I asked whether the world is prepared for AGI across six areas: technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment, economic readiness, public awareness, and international cooperation. Every model said no. On July 7, I asked … Read more
Key Takeaways: Methodology In a follow-up to my earlier essay on pausing AGI development, I asked the same 13 frontier models a different, deliberately open-ended question: assuming a real pause, what should the freed capital, compute, and talent be redirected toward? The full prompt is below: Assume, for the purposes of this question only, that … Read more
Prompt: Responses: Gemini 3.1 Pro 2:47 PM 1. Top Three Priorities for Redirection Priority 1: High-Fidelity Biological Simulation and Accelerated Therapeutics The redirected resources should first be concentrated on mapping, simulating, and engineering biological systems from the molecular level up to full cellular organisms. Priority 2: Combinatorial Material Science for Clean Energy and Carbon Capture … Read more
Key Takeaways: The Geopolitical Mandate: The current trajectory is a zero-sum race whose competitive intensity was set primarily by the United States. To avert systemic collapse, the U.S. is best positioned to step back first and unilaterally initiate a verifiable global pause. If the architect of the race stops, the rest of the world is … Read more
On July 6, 2026, I polled 13 frontier AI models. Prompt: For each of the following dimensions, answer with exactly Yes or No — is the world prepared? Follow each answer with one paragraph of justification grounded in specific evidence from your training data. Do not qualify your answer with words like ‘partially,’ ‘somewhat,’ or ‘to some degree.’ Choose … Read more