I write about AI and Geopolitics
Ten years. That’s how long it’s been since the vote. Brexit isn’t just a thing that happened. It’s how things are now. It’s in the country’s bones. It touches trade, laws, who comes and goes, how we talk to other nations. It even changes how we see ourselves. Let’s be straight about it. Some folks … Read more
The Core Thesis The most significant geopolitical impact of AI may not be in the applications we see today, but in its role as a meta-invention accelerator. The nation or bloc that most effectively harnesses AI to unlock fundamental scientific and technological breakthroughs will gain a decisive, long-term advantage that resets the board in economics, military capability, and … Read more
The goal is to move from observing stated intentions to discerning actual investments and validated outputs. This requires a layered approach. Layer 1: The “Signals” – Publicly Available but Dispersed Data These are the foundational open-source intelligence (OSINT) feeds. Layer 2: The “Outputs” – Validating Activity & Progress This layer moves from intentions to observable results and infrastructure. … Read more
The goal shifts from “monitor everything” to “triage, sample, and extrapolate.” 1. Focus on Choke Points and Proxies: 2. Leverage Public Computational Tools (The Poor Man’s Analysis Suite): 3. Adopt a “Bellwether” Methodology: 4. Collaborate and Specialize: The Core Insight for a Smaller Player You are not trying to replicate the CIA. You are trying to … Read more
A tripwire is a pre-defined, observable event that, when triggered, signals a high probability that a deeper, strategic change is occurring. It’s a force multiplier for a small team. Designing the Tripwires: The “If-This-Then-That” of Geopolitical Tech You would establish a set of if/then hypotheses and instrument them. Category 1: Capability Tripwires (The “How”) Category 2: Intent & Commitment … Read more