I write about AI and Geopolitics
Here’s what I’m wrestling with—and why it matters beyond AI policy circles: In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier AI models two structured questions. The first was simple: is the world prepared for artificial general intelligence (systems that could match or surpass humans across many tasks) across six dimensions—technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment … Read more
The AGI Poll Conjunction In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier models two blunt questions about AGI. On July 6, I asked whether the world is prepared for AGI across six areas: technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment, economic readiness, public awareness, and international cooperation. Every model said no. On July 7, I asked … Read more
Key Takeaways: Methodology In a follow-up to my earlier essay on pausing AGI development, I asked the same 13 frontier models a different, deliberately open-ended question: assuming a real pause, what should the freed capital, compute, and talent be redirected toward? The full prompt is below: Assume, for the purposes of this question only, that … Read more
Prompt: Responses: Gemini 3.1 Pro 2:47 PM 1. Top Three Priorities for Redirection Priority 1: High-Fidelity Biological Simulation and Accelerated Therapeutics The redirected resources should first be concentrated on mapping, simulating, and engineering biological systems from the molecular level up to full cellular organisms. Priority 2: Combinatorial Material Science for Clean Energy and Carbon Capture … Read more
Key Takeaways: The Geopolitical Mandate: The current trajectory is a zero-sum race whose competitive intensity was set primarily by the United States. To avert systemic collapse, the U.S. is best positioned to step back first and unilaterally initiate a verifiable global pause. If the architect of the race stops, the rest of the world is … Read more