I write about AI and Geopolitics
Bill Friend I grew up with the phrase “changing tack.” It’s an old sailing term. You change tack when you need to turn the boat, catch the wind differently, or avoid something in the water. In everyday life, it means you shift your strategy while keeping the same destination. You accept what you can’t control, stay flexible, … Read more
Here’s what I’m wrestling with—and why it matters beyond AI policy circles: In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier AI models two structured questions. The first was simple: is the world prepared for artificial general intelligence (systems that could match or surpass humans across many tasks) across six dimensions—technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment … Read more
The AGI Poll Conjunction In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier models two blunt questions about AGI. On July 6, I asked whether the world is prepared for AGI across six areas: technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment, economic readiness, public awareness, and international cooperation. Every model said no. On July 7, I asked … Read more
Key Takeaways: Methodology In a follow-up to my earlier essay on pausing AGI development, I asked the same 13 frontier models a different, deliberately open-ended question: assuming a real pause, what should the freed capital, compute, and talent be redirected toward? The full prompt is below: Assume, for the purposes of this question only, that … Read more
Prompt: Responses: Gemini 3.1 Pro 2:47 PM 1. Top Three Priorities for Redirection Priority 1: High-Fidelity Biological Simulation and Accelerated Therapeutics The redirected resources should first be concentrated on mapping, simulating, and engineering biological systems from the molecular level up to full cellular organisms. Priority 2: Combinatorial Material Science for Clean Energy and Carbon Capture … Read more