I write about AI and Geopolitics
Bill Friend Introduction: Beyond the Bubble Narrative As market volatility leads some to question the longevity of the AI sector, many commentators have labeled the technology a speculative bubble. Stock-market bubbles reflect sentiment—optimism, hype, and fear—which can burst overnight. The “bubble” narrative persists because speculative frenzy in public markets is far easier to see than the technical … Read more
The Quantum Variable Why Policy Must Anticipate Convergence Before It Accelerates Beyond Control Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly. Quantum computing is advancing more slowly, but steadily. Each technology alone presents governance challenges. Together, they may alter the trajectory of technological power in ways existing policy frameworks are not designed to manage. The convergence of advanced … Read more
The genie is out of the bottle. Artificial intelligence is no longer theoretical. It is deployed, scaled, integrated into economic systems, and accelerating. The relevant question is no longer whether AI should exist. It does. The relevant question is how we proceed. There are two unhelpful extremes in the public conversation. One insists that AI … Read more
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a pace that would have seemed implausible a decade ago. Systems now draft legal briefs, discover drug candidates, generate software, and outperform humans in complex games once thought to require uniquely human cognition. It is not unreasonable to imagine that within a generation, AI systems could exceed human capabilities across … Read more
Scaling Frontier AI Under the Irreversible Agency Standard Humanity is confronting two profound risks: climate destabilization and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence toward systems that may exceed human cognitive capacity in strategically critical domains. Both demand seriousness. Both demand coordinated governance. But they are not structurally identical risks. Climate change threatens the stability of … Read more