I write about AI and Geopolitics
Bill Friend I wrote this essay because I’m worried about a quiet shift in the AI landscape that most people haven’t seen yet. I call it the Gray-Alignment threat. When people talk about AI risk, they usually focus on the big, visible things: training giant models, building massive data centers, and restricting access to advanced chips. What … Read more
The intersection of AI infrastructure and critical minerals is one of the most underappreciated risk vectors in the current technology cycle. While attention fixates on compute density, energy, and cooling, the physical foundation—built from prosaic metals—is facing a material mismatch. Tin has spent most of its modern life in the background—a dull, silvery metal used … Read more
I grew up with the phrase “changing tack.” It’s an old sailing term. You change tack when you need to turn the boat, catch the wind differently, or avoid something in the water. In everyday life, it means you shift your strategy while keeping the same destination. You accept what you can’t control, stay flexible, … Read more
Here’s what I’m wrestling with—and why it matters beyond AI policy circles: In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier AI models two structured questions. The first was simple: is the world prepared for artificial general intelligence (systems that could match or surpass humans across many tasks) across six dimensions—technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment … Read more
The AGI Poll Conjunction In early July 2026, I asked thirteen frontier models two blunt questions about AGI. On July 6, I asked whether the world is prepared for AGI across six areas: technical infrastructure, regulation, safety and alignment, economic readiness, public awareness, and international cooperation. Every model said no. On July 7, I asked … Read more